{"as_of":"2026-10-19","pipeline":[{"name":"experiments","last_status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-10-19T18:53:57.850688+00:00"},{"name":"ibm","last_status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-10-19T18:53:57.850688+00:00"},{"name":"metriq","last_status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-10-19T18:53:57.850688+00:00"}],"last_checked":"2026-10-19T18:53:57.850688+00:00","headlines":[{"key":"gate_error","kicker":"Errors are falling fast","value":"3,600×","label":"lower two-qubit error than the first experiments","detail":"In 1998, about 1 in 3.3 entangling operations failed. The best result so far (trapped ions, 2025) fails about 1 in 11,900.","evidence":"Published experiments","source_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2510.17286"},{"key":"qec","kicker":"Error correction has started to work","value":"2024","label":"first surface code that improved as it grew","detail":"Acharya et al. ran a distance-7 surface code on superconducting hardware below the error-correction threshold: adding qubits made the protected (logical) qubit better, not worse.","evidence":"Published experiments","source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13687"},{"key":"ibm","kicker":"Cloud machines are improving too","value":"8.3×","label":"lower typical two-qubit error on IBM's cloud fleet, 2019–2026","detail":"A typical IBM device's two-qubit gate failed about 1 in 63 times in 2019 and about 1 in 520 in 2026 (median across 8 devices).","evidence":"Device calibration","source_url":"/hardware"},{"key":"gap","kicker":"Still far from breaking encryption","value":"<1M","label":"qubits needed to break RSA-2048 (2025 estimate). The largest IBM chip in this record has 156.","detail":"That estimate assumes every qubit fails at most about 1 in 1,000 operations, and the earlier 2019 estimate needed 20,000,000. Better algorithms are closing the gap from one side, bigger and cleaner machines from the other.","evidence":"Resource estimate","source_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917"}],"charts":{"gate_error":{"points":[{"year":1998,"value":0.3,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Deterministic entanglement of two trapped ions","author":"Turchette","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9806012","note":"Bell state error"},{"year":2000,"value":0.17,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Experimental Entanglement of Four Particles","author":"Sackett","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/35005011","note":"entangled state error"},{"year":2001,"value":0.1,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Experimental Violation of a Bell's Inequality with Efficient Detection","author":"Rowe","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/35057215","note":"Bell state error"},{"year":2003,"value":0.03,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Experimental demonstration of a robust, high-fidelity geometric two ion-qubit phase 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Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2021,"value":2,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Experimental Characterization of Fault-Tolerant Circuits in Small-Scale Quantum Processors","author":"Cane","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04076","note":"","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2022,"value":2,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Comparative analysis of error mitigation techniques for variational quantum eigensolver implementations on IBM quantum system","author":"Zhang","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07907","note":"","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2022,"value":2,"platform":"Photonic","title":"Optical demonstration of quantum fault-tolerant threshold","author":"Sun","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.08927","note":"","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2024,"value":2,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Encoding a magic state with beyond break-even fidelity","author":"Gupta","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.13581","note":"","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2024,"value":2,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"End-to-End Quantum Simulation of a Chemical System","author":"Dam","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.05835","note":"Error detection yielded a 3% rejection\nrate and the use of teleportation flags was responsible for the additional 50% rejection rate.","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2024,"value":2,"platform":"Neutral atoms","title":"Fault-Tolerant Operation and Materials Science with Neutral Atom Logical Qubits","author":"Bedalov","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.07670","note":"","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2024,"value":5,"platform":"Neutral atoms","title":"Experimental Demonstration of Logical Magic State Distillation","author":"Rodriguez","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.15165","note":"","code":"Color Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2024,"value":5,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Scaling and logic in the color code on a superconducting quantum processor","author":"Lacroix","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14256","note":"","code":"Color Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2024,"value":5,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Demonstrating dynamic surface codes","author":"Eickbusch","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14360","note":"","code":"Surface Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2004,"value":3,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Realization of quantum error correction","author":"Chiaverini","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03074","note":"","code":"Repetition Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2025,"value":2,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Error detection without post-selection in adaptive quantum circuits","author":"Chertkov","url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.25326","note":"Quantinuum H2-2, adaptive logical simulation, detected errors converted into random resets instead of post-selection, 4 ancilla qubits reused, qubit-reuse compilation, break-even for t<=6; 1000 shots","code":"Four-qubit Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2025,"value":3,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Magic state cultivation on a superconducting quantum processor","author":"Rosenfeld","url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.13908","note":"Willow processor. Magic state cultivation via fault-tolerant logical H_L measurement + postselection, kickback tomography (KT) characterization, |T> fidelity 0.9999(1); 40x improvement over injection; fault distance 3; error scales as p^3, RL-calibrated control, each QEC cycle = 30 two-qubit gates + 6 measurements","code":"Color Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2025,"value":5,"platform":"Superconducting","title":"Magic state cultivation on a superconducting quantum processor","author":"Rosenfeld","url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.13908","note":"Willow processor, cultivated |T> state grafted from d=3 color code into d=5 surface-code-compatible encoding, proof-of-principle code switching, 1 extension cycle + N-1 grafted-code cycles, decoded with Tesseract (A* most-likely-error decoder), LER ~7x higher than SI1000 simulation (leakage suspected), memory experiment up to N=9 QEC cycles","code":"Surface Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2026,"value":4,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Improved quantum processor logical error rates via correction and detection","author":"Paetznick","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10628-y","note":"Carbon = [[12,2,4]] self-dual CSS code, concatenation of [[4,2,2]] and [[6,2,2]] (Knill C4/C6 scheme); threshold ~3%, rate 1/6 at d=4; Quantinuum H2 trapped-ion QCCD; repeated error correction (up to 3 rounds) combining correction + detection with pre- and post-selection; measured logical error 0.017% (1 round), 0.3% (2 rounds), 0.5% (3 rounds), ~0.006% per-round fit in Table 1; 4.7x-800x gain over physical baselines; two-qubit gate count is reported only per round (98 CNOTs/round, >100 physical CNOTs per EC cycle), no per-experiment total tabulated; carbon experiments from arXiv:2404.02280","code":"Carbon Code","below_threshold":false},{"year":2026,"value":4,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Improved quantum processor logical error rates via correction and detection","author":"Paetznick","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10628-y","note":"Tesseract subsystem colour code from self-dual [[16,6,4]] tesseract code (2 encoded qubits sacrificed as gauge qubits), distance 4, 4 logical qubits; one code block = 18 physical qubits (16 data + 2 reused ancillae); X and Z stabilisers measured in parallel, 8 CNOTs per weight-4 measurement pair = 64 CNOTs/round; Quantinuum H2; up to 5 rounds of post-selected fault-tolerant EC; graph states up to 12 logical qubits (cube graph = 12 logical CNOTs, 12-qubit cat = 11 logical CNOTs); acceptance >=50% (50-90%); logical error ~0.02% per round (2.1e-4/round fit); two-qubit gate count reported only per round (64 CNOTs/round), no per-experiment total tabulated; tesseract experiments from arXiv:2409.04628","code":"Color Code","below_threshold":false}]},"qubit_count":{"points":[{"year":1998,"value":2.0,"platform":"Trapped ions","title":"Experimental Demonstration of a Controlled-NOT Quantum 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